The Former President's Ukraine Peace Proposal Represents a Gift to Vladimir Putin

At first, Donald Trump gave the impression to adopt a firm stance on Ukraine. After issuing warnings of "serious repercussions" last August in case Vladimir Putin persisted obstructing ceasefire talks, the former president finally enacted considerable penalties on Russia's biggest energy firms, Lukoil and Rosneft. This action substantially affected the Russian leader's capacity to finance his military invasion in the region.

However, via his recently unveiled comprehensive peace proposal for Ukraine, reportedly developed by US and Russian representatives without Ukraine's or European input, he has apparently reverted to his Russia-friendly position.

Rewarding Aggression

The former president's proposal would in practice favor the Russian leader for occupying Ukraine while placing Ukraine's democratic system in jeopardy. Although ringing declarations that "Ukraine's independence will be affirmed", significant aspects of the proposal actually compromise that essential autonomy. This constitutes a Kremlin dream would likely be a disaster for Ukraine.

Demonstrating his business past, Trump seems to treat the Ukrainian conflict as a mere border issue, implying handing Russia a portion of Ukrainian soil will satisfy the leader. However, Russia's war is not only about dominating a destroyed swath of industrial-devastated area in Ukraine's east. Rather, it is about the nation's political system – and Putin's obvious intention to destroy it so it stops serves as an attractive example for the Russian people of the responsible leadership that his increasing authoritarian rule prevents them.

Border Giveaways

While freezing in place the presently split regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the plan would require the nation to abandon the entire Donetsk region. Beyond favoring Russia with territory that its troops have been unsuccessful to capture in more than a ten years of fighting, this giveaway would make Ukrainian defensive positions severely weakened.

The area is the site of the nation's highly-touted "stronghold system", the fortified military defenses that are a key impediment to Russian advances. The proposal would have Ukraine abandon these positions, leaving Putin a unobstructed route to Kyiv should he subsequently choose to restart the conflict.

Armed Forces Reductions

Additionally, in a action that would make future conflict easier for Russia, Trump would mandate Ukraine to cut the scale of its armed forces from their existing 800,000 to 850,000 personnel to a cap of six hundred thousand. Importantly, Trump's plan imposes no equivalent constraints on Russian forces.

Apparently as a gesture to Russia's efforts to characterize Ukraine's democratically elected administration as radicals, Trump's plan declares: "All radical doctrine and practices must be opposed and banned." Seemingly to emphasize this point, it demands that "Ukraine will hold political contests in three months" of a ceasefire agreement. At the same time, Trump sets no obligation that Putin endanger his authoritarian rule by conducting democratic processes in his own country.

Protection Commitments

Certainly, the initiative has the Russian Federation pledge not to "attack neighboring countries" and to "enshrine in legislation its stance of peaceful relations towards Europe and Ukraine". Yet given that Putin has breached similar accords in the history – such as the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia promised to honor the nation's borders in return for giving up its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia agreed to a ceasefire and a return of occupied land in eastern Ukraine to Ukrainian control – for what reason should the international community believe this commitment now?

That is why Ukraine has been so insistent on international defense commitments. While the plan warns of a "decisive coordinated defense action" in case the Russian Federation resume its military campaign, and provides that "The nation will receive strong defense commitments", the particulars include unclear to troubling. The initiative would not only deny Ukraine alliance membership but also prevent member states from positioning military personnel on Ukraine's soil, thereby precluding the reassurance force, presumptively commanded by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to prevent Russia from restoring his reduced troops, rearming, and resuming aggression.

Global Reaction

An additional parallel deal apparently would offer the nation with a alliance-like security guarantee, in which any future "major, planned, and sustained military assault" by Russia on the country "will be treated as an attack endangering the tranquility of the Western nations." This implies a military response. But unlike a strong national defense – Ukraine's primary defense against additional hostilities – the credibility of the side agreement would depend on the dedication of Nato leaders, including Trump, to act through arms to Russia's aggression, an action they have {not